valuation
5. Valuation Report

Executive Summary
This report details the principles and methods for determining a valuation for Marlowe Yard
Marlowe Yard is a 48-home boutique for-sale condominium in RiNo, Denver, over six storeys with ground-floor amenity and 60 structured parking spaces. The homes carry a gross development value of $72.2M, at a blended $1,176 per square foot across 61,360 net saleable square feet. Total development cost is $53.3M, including $11.0M of land and $32.0M of construction. The scheme returns a development profit of $18.82M, a 35.3% margin on cost and 26.1% on gross development value. Independent methods triangulate the value on completion to a range of $70M to $74M, concluding at $72.2M.
| Value on Completion (GDV) | $72.2M |
| Total Development Cost | $53.3M |
| Development Profit | $18.8M |
| Profit on GDV | 26.1% |
| Method | Value | Weighting | Weighted value |
| Comparable Sales | $72.2M | 25% | $18.1M |
| Residual Land Valuation | $70.5M | 15% | $10.6M |
| Profit on Cost Benchmark | $73.5M | 15% | $11.0M |
| Comparable Schemes | $72.2M | 20% | $14.4M |
| Discounted Cash Flows Method | $71.5M | 10% | $7.1M |
| Scenario Analysis | $72.2M | 15% | $11.0M |
| 100% | $72.2M |
Table of Contents
Principles & Methodology
Valuation Principles
Methodology
Base Value
Application of Methodology
Comparable Sales
Residual Land Valuation
Profit on Cost Benchmark
Comparable Schemes
Discounted Cash Flows Method
Scenario Analysis
Disclaimer
4
5-7
8-12
13
14
15-16
17-18
19-21
22-23
24-25
26-29
30
Principles & Methodology
Valuation Principles:
A fair price both sides can explain
Balanced inputs: We use facts that are sourced, dated, and unitized. Assumptions are consistent across the report and cross-checked against reality. Outliers are flagged, not quietly averaged in. If a number changes upstream, the downstream math updates.
Scheme first: We start with what the site and the market support today, not a target return. Comparable sales, the cost plan, absorption, and development margin drive the band. A method output cannot leapfrog weak evidence. Strong evidence can
Market anchored: We reference recent condo sales, relevant RiNo schemes, blended dollars per square foot, and the cost of finance. Each data point has a source and a date so readers can judge freshness. Stale or non-comparable data is excluded.
Shared fairness : Both sides should be able to explain the number in a few sentences. Steps are reproducible from inputs to final output, with no hidden tweaks. If we override a method, we say what we changed and why. The same logic applies to everyone.
Durable value: We test how much the conclusion moves under reasonable changes. Band up or down one notch, weight shifts, and small input swings are shown. The report highlights what would materially raise or lower value and points to the evidence required.
Data with judgment: We prefer data, but early companies have gaps. Where inputs are thin, we use conservative ranges and state the rationale. We mark what would confirm the estimate. No false precision, no unexplained plugs.
Transparent and repeatable: Inputs are visible, formulas are standard, totals reconcile. The executive summary pulls directly from the method pages. Version, preparer, and sources create an audit trail. A reader can rebuild the result in a simple spreadsheet.
This report shows exactly how these principles are applied, step by step
Valuation Principles:
The table links each principle to the proof we show and where to find it. Use it as a checklist while you review. If something is missing in a live report, we flag the gap and note the impact.
| Principle | What we show | Section |
| Balanced inputs | Source list, dated assumptions, currency and units on every table | Scope and Sources |
| Business first | Evidence table with lines for site, team, entitlement, pre-sales, sales strategy, development margin | Stage of Business |
| Market anchored | Comparable-scheme table plus recent sales with dollars per square foot, scheme size, absorption, date, links | Market Conditions, Benchmark |
| Shared fairness | Single weighting model and one triangulation, with overrides documented | Weighting and Triangulation |
| Durable value | Two sensitivities: band up or down; weight shift internal vs market | Sensitivities |
| Data with judgment | Analyst notes where inputs are thin and what adjustment was made | Method footers |
| Transparent and repeatable | Standard method template: inputs box, calc box, output, caveat | Method pages, Exec Summary |
What this gives you. A traceable valuation with sources, consistent methods, and one reconciled result. You can verify inputs, rerun the math, and see where judgment was used. Fair, explainable, repeatable.
Valuation Process
We value using a simple waterfall. We place the scheme against comparable sales, read today's market, set a fair range, then run methods to plot a point inside that range. That point drives the appraisal.
Evidence. Value on completion comes from what buyers pay now. Recent closed sales in RiNo and LoHi, price per square foot by unit type, and absorption at competing schemes. Marlowe's larger, better-finished homes set the reference against those comparables.
Market. We read the for-sale climate in Denver. Closed pricing, days on market, the new supply coming through, and buyer depth at the premium end. In-migration and a thin pipeline of for-sale product move the reference upward.
Range. This bracket is the value a willing buyer and seller would agree today. Each method has to land inside it. If one falls outside, we explain it and hold it to the range.
Methods
Comparable Sales reads price per square foot from recent sales.
Residual Land Valuation works back from sales value to the land price.
Profit on Cost Benchmark tests the margin against the required return.
VC Method works back from a sensible exit and required return.
Residual land valuation takes the value on completion, subtracts every development cost and the profit a developer requires, and leaves the land value the site supports.
Scenario Analysis weights three cases of the appraisal
Result. Weighted result equals each method value times its weight, which gives the concluded gross development value.
Methodology
A value sits inside a range that a willing buyer and seller would call reasonable today. Two readings set that range: the appraisal, which is internal evidence of the margin, and the comparable band, which is external
Stage of business
Where the scheme sits against the RiNo pipeline. We read comparable new-build sales. The evidence sets the baseline against peers.
Product. What exists in users' hands and how stable it is.
Team. Who is on the field and how roles are covered.
Traction. Evidence that people want it.
Run rate. Current revenue level and path to profit.
Total development cost. How much outside capital and from whom.
Go to market. Channels in use and how repeatable they are.
Development margin. cost, margins, payback, and revenue quality.
Market band
Where the round sits in current market conditions. We read seven external signals. The band shifts the baseline up or down to match what the market is paying right now.
Funding climate. How active investors are and how fast rounds close.
Exit activity. Depth of buyers and recent outcomes.
Comparable dollars per square foot. Typical EV to ARR for comparable companies.
Competitive intensity. How crowded and strong the field is.
Regulatory support. Headwinds or tailwinds from rules and incentives.
Talent pool depth. Availability and cost of key hires.
Macro and cost of capital. Rates, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Methodology
The table below maps each internal signal to what an early, neutral, or late stage reading looks like in practice. The strongest cluster of signals sets the stage.
| Market band | Product | Team | Traction | Run rate | Total development cost | Go to market | Development margin |
| Early stage | A basic prototype or demo tests if the idea works. | One or two founders cover all roles and responsibilities. | Early interest shows as waitlists, interviews, or beta sign-ups. | Revenue is negligible while learning. | Small angel or friends-and-family checks. | Founder-led sales and direct conversations. | Costs and value per user are unknown. |
| Neutral | A live MVP ships updates fast and collects real user feedback. | A core team forms with technical and commercial ownership defined. | First paying users engage consistently and form cohorts. | Recurring revenue grows and pricing stabilizes. | Seed fund or notable angels invest; hiring and go to market begin. | One sales gallery with reservation and absorption tracking. | Cohort data emerges; breakeven nears; payback shortens. |
| Late stage | A polished product with a roadmap and integrations ready to scale | Functional leads join, supported by lightweight management structures. | Retention strengthens and usage becomes stable and predictable. | Annualized revenue above $100k with a clear path to profit. | Larger rounds fund headcount, product depth, and scale. | Multi-channel playbook with strong, repeatable metrics | Sales pace holds; pricing holds; margin expands. |
Methodology
The table below maps each market signal to what an unfavorable, neutral, or favorable reading looks like in practice. We anchor the band to the strongest cluster of signals.
| Market band | Funding climate | Exit activity | Revenue-multiple benchmarks | Competitive intensity | Regulatory or policy support | Talent-pool depth | Macro tailwinds and cost of capital |
| Unfavorable | Sales slow, thin reservations, discounting to move stock. | No recent exits; buyers scarce; pricing signals unclear. | Below $900 per square foot for most. | Rental product dominates; for-sale supply stays thin. | Active headwinds or legal risk create hurdles. | Specialist talent scarce, hiring slow, salaries spiking. | Rising rates and recession fears tighten lending and compress multiples. |
| Neutral | Steady flow of rounds with heavy diligence. | Occasional sub-$100m acquisitions show cautious liquidity. | $1,000 to $1,150 per square foot for well-located schemes. | Crowded market with credible contenders. | Entitlement predictable with some grey areas. | Adequate local plus remote supply; budgets tight. | Neutral macro keeps capital available on prudent terms. |
| Favorable | Oversubscribed raises, multiple funds chasing. | Regular $500m+ exits and IPO chatter signal strong liquidity. | $1,200 per square foot and above where demand is strong. | Winner-takes-most dynamics; fast movers scale quickly. | Incentives and clear approvals accelerate adoption. | Deep bench of experienced leaders; compensation stabilizes. | Low rates and strong flows unlock growth capital. |
Methodology
| Stage ↓ \ Band → | Band 1 | Band 2 | Band 3 | Band 4 | Band 5 |
| Pre-Seed | $0.5M - $1.5M | $1.0M - $2.0M | $2.0M - $4.0M | $3.5M - $7.0M | $6.0M - $14.0M |
| Early Seed | $1.0M - $3.0M | $2.0M - $4.0M | $4.5M - $8.5M | $7.5M - $15.5M | $14.5M - $34.5M |
| Seed | $1.5M - $3.5M | $2.5M - $5.5M | $6.5M - $11.5M | $10.5M - $22.5M | $21.0M - $49.0M |
| Late Seed | $2.0M - $5.0M | $3.5M - $7.5M | $8.0M - $15.0M | $13.5M - $28.5M | $27.5M - $63.5M |
| Early Series A | $2.5M - $6.5M | $5.0M - $11.0M | $13.5M - $24.5M | $24.0M - $50.0M | $51.5M - $120.5M |
| Series A | $4.0M - $9.0M | $7.5M - $15.5M | $19.0M - $35.0M | $34.5M - $71.5M | $73.5M - $171.5M |
| Late Series A | $5.0M - $11.0M | $9.5M - $19.5M | $24.5M - $45.5M | $44.5M - $92.5M | $95.5M - $223.5M |
Having determined the stage of business and band within that stage we use industry data to get a value range.
Methodology
After defining the range of value, we apply six valuation methods to triangulate where within that range Marlowe Yard sits. These methods are weighted by stage: earlier stages weight internal methods more heavily, later stages weight external and forecasted methods.
Internal methodologies
- Comparable Sales
- Residual Land Valuation
External methodologies
- Profit on Cost Benchmark
- Comparable Schemes
Forecasted methodologies
- Discounted Cash Flow Method
- Scenario Analysis
Method weighting by stage
Pre-seed
Seed
Series A
Base Value
We have identified that Marlowe Yard stage of business fits into Boutique premium of For-sale condominium round.
Giving it a value of $70M - $74M GDV
Marlowe Yard is a 48-home for-sale condominium in RiNo, priced to complete at a gross development value of $72.2M. The blended rate of $1,176 per square foot sits inside the $900 to $1,300 range set by recent RiNo and LoHi schemes, at the premium end, supported by larger homes and a higher finish level. Independent methods triangulate the value on completion to between $70M and $74M. After a total development cost of $53.3M, the scheme returns an $18.82M profit, a 35.3% margin on cost and 26.1% on gross development value, against a market requirement of 15% to 20%. The residual land value the scheme supports is $11.0M, in line with the site basis. The margin holds above the required range even in the downside case.
Application of Methodology

Valuation methods

Comparable Sales
Comparable Sales is a widely used framework for valuing new-build for-sale homes where recent transaction evidence is available. It reads price per square foot from recent comparable condo sales in the submarket, then adjusts each comparable for location, specification and floor level to arrive at supportable pricing for the scheme.
The model assigns scores (typically 0 to 10) to five key factors, each weighted equally and multiplied by a predetermined dollar amount. Traditionally, the maximum assigned per factor was $500,000, yielding a total valuation cap of $2,500,000. In 2016, value bridge updated the model to recognize that industry, geography, and market conditions may warrant adjustments to the cap or weighting.
Strengths
Straightforward and well suited to early-stage assessments. Focuses on qualitative factors, allowing reviewers to consider elements beyond historic traction and forecasts, which are difficult to predict at early stages.
Limitations
Equal weighting across all factors can oversimplify. Subjective scoring increases the risk of bias. Business-model nuances may be missed, and accuracy depends on selecting appropriate industry benchmarks for the cap.
key evaluation criteria
Recent comparable sales. Each adjusted independently.
Sound Idea
Foundational value
Prototype
Reduces technical risk
Quality Management Team
Reduces execution risk
Strategic Relationships
Reduces market-entry risk
Product Rollout or Sales
Reduces go-to-market and scaling risk
Comparable Sales
For the total value cap we use the upper bound of the band determined from our methodology above and divide by 5 to get the maximum value of each evaluation criteria.
| Value driver | Ceiling | Score (1-10) | Rationale | Assigned value |
| Location and submarket | $16.0M | 9 | RiNo is Denver's fastest-moving submarket, walkable and served by the 38th and Blake light-rail station. For-sale product is scarce here, since most new construction is rental, so owner-occupiers pay up for the few condos that come to market. | $14.5M |
| Specification and finish | $16.0M | 9 | The homes are finished to a boutique-premium standard, above the level of the surrounding rental stock. That finish level is what recent RiNo and LoHi buyers have paid a premium to secure. | $14.4M |
| Unit mix and home size | $16.0M | 9 | The mix runs from 720 square foot one-beds to 2,300 square foot penthouses, larger than most competing product. Bigger, better-laid-out homes carry a higher price per square foot and widen the buyer pool to move-down owners. | $14.5M |
| Amenity and parking | $16.0M | 8 | Ground-floor lobby and amenity sit alongside 60 structured parking spaces, close to one per home. Parking is a real constraint in RiNo, and it supports both price and absorption. | $12.8M |
| Delivery and entitlement | $16.0M | 10 | The site is entitled and the scheme is designed, with enabling works ready to start. Low delivery risk protects the value on completion. | $16.0M |
| Total | $80.0M | 45 | Concluded | $72.2M |
Residual Land Valuation
Residual Land Valuation is a structured framework that starts from the value the completed scheme will sell for and works backwards. It deducts all development costs and the required profit to arrive at the land value the site can support, then adjusts for the main risk drivers.
Each cost line and the required profit carries a defined value, taken from the appraisal and set against the completed sales total of $72.2M. The cumulative deduction, from hard build through finance, resolves to the supportable land value of $11.0M the site can carry.
This approach ties value directly to sales values and costs rather than to comparables alone, capturing both scheme-specific and market-driven risks. It is most useful when the cost plan is firm but the site price is still being tested.
Strengths
Ties land value directly to sales values and costs, giving a more detailed view of both risk and margin than comparables alone. The transparent deduction process helps ensure investor alignment.
Limitations
Equal weight across all categories. Focused on risk exposure rather than opportunity upside. Relies on skilled judgment and a solid base valuation, which adds complexity.
risk categories assessed
Twelve categories. Each scored independently from negative two to positive two.
Management risk
-2 to +2Stage of business
-2 to +2Legislation, political risk
-2 to +2Manufacturing risk
-2 to +2Sales and marketing risk
-2 to +2Funding, capital raise risk
-2 to +2Competition risk
-2 to +2Technology risk
-2 to +2Litigation risk
-2 to +2International, geographic risk
-2 to +2Reputation risk
-2 to +2Potential for lucrative exit
-2 to +2Residual Land Valuation
The base valuation uses the midpoint of the value band. The value of a point is the delta between the low and high of the band divided by the total number of points (48). Per-risk scores aggregate to a single adjustment applied to the base.
| Risk | Score | Rationale |
| Management | 2 | The sponsor has delivered comparable for-sale schemes in Denver and holds the general contractor and architect relationships on this site. A full-stack delivery team lowers execution risk on a 32-month build. |
| Stage of the business | 1 | The capital stack is set. A 60% loan-to-cost senior facility sits alongside $21.3M of equity, including GP co-invest and land-partner rollover, so the scheme is funded to completion. |
| Legislation, political risk | -1 | Entitlement is close but not fully signed off. Final approvals and enabling-works permits are the last open item before the build starts, and they carry timing risk. |
| Manufacturing risk | 0 | Hard costs are set against a base build with a 5% contingency and structured parking priced in. Contractor pricing is competitive but not yet fully locked, so the score is neutral. |
| Sales and marketing risk | 1 | Denver in-migration and a thin supply of for-sale condos support demand. Most new construction in RiNo is rental, which leaves owner-occupier demand under-served. |
| Funding, capital raising risk | 0 | The blended rate of $1,176 per square foot sits inside the $900 to $1,300 range set by recent RiNo and LoHi schemes. Pricing is well-supported but at the premium end, so the score is neutral. |
| Competition risk | -1 | Hard construction is the largest cost line at $32.0M. Materials and labor pricing can move over a 32-month build, and the 5% contingency covers only part of that exposure. |
| Technology risk | -1 | The senior facility is priced at 9.5%, and finance cost runs to $2.78M over the programme. A longer sell-out or a rate move would raise carry. |
| Litigation risk | 0 | Title is clean and there is no active litigation on the site. That is standard for a site at this stage, so the score is neutral. |
| International risk | -1 | Closings are weighted to months 26 to 31, and sell-out completes around month 33. A slower absorption curve pushes finance cost up and returns down. |
| Reputation risk | 1 | The sponsor has a track record and local standing with brokers and lenders in Denver. That standing helps pre-sales and lending terms. |
| Potential lucrative exit | 1 | The exit is a straightforward sell-out to owner-occupiers, with equity returned as homes close. No single buyer or refinancing is required to realize value. |
Aggregate
| Total Score | 2 |
Residual land build
| Value of a point | $0.75M |
| Adjustment to base | $1.5M |
| Base value | $70.0M |
| Supportable land value | $71.5M |
Profit on Cost Benchmark
The Profit on Cost Benchmark, a standard test in development appraisal, checks whether the scheme's margin clears the return the market requires for the risk taken. It benchmarks the profit on cost against comparable schemes of the same type, location and scale, then flags any shortfall or headroom against th
We take the scheme's profit on cost of 35.3% and set it against the market required return of 15 to 20% for boutique for-sale development. The margin is then tested across weighted factors covering location, specification, and delivery risk to size the headroom the scheme carries as a multi
Strengths
Straightforward and easy to apply, with weightings that reflect the importance of each factor. Widely used by development lenders and equity investors.
Limitations
Requires skill and judgment to score factors correctly. May miss certain risks or unique business aspects. Does not fully consider external market conditions.
key evaluation factors
Seven weighted factors. Multipliers applied to the comparable benchmark.
Strength of the Management Team
30%Size of the Opportunity
20%Product / Technology
20%Competitive Environment
15%Marketing, Sales, Channels, Partnerships
5%Need for Additional Investment
5%Other (traction, NPS, customer feedback)
5%Profit on Cost Benchmark
Below are the 3 identified companies for comparison. Each should fall within the stage of business and band identified above to be a fair comparison for this method
Larimer & 30th (RiNo)
Curved-facade condominium tower in RiNo, completed 2024. New homes achieved around $1,300 per square foot, at the top of the Denver market. It sets the premium ceiling for the submarket.
Capital Raised: $1,300/sqftDate Raised: 2024
The Rowan (RiNo)
Sustainability-focused condominium community in RiNo, delivered 2022. Homes traded around $950 per square foot, at the value end of new RiNo product. It marks the floor for recent for-sale pricing in the submarket.
Capital Raised: $950/sqftDate Raised: 2022
Nine Mile (RiNo)
Boutique condominium building in RiNo, completed 2023. New homes sold around $1,100 per square foot. It is the closest comparable to Marlowe on scale, location and finish.
Capital Raised: $1,100/sqftDate Raised: 2023
Profit on Cost Benchmark
Weighted factor scores and comparable-scheme inputs produce the benchmark and the margin above the required return.
| Weighting | Larimer & 30th | The Rowan | Nine Mile | |
| Total development cost | $79.8M | $58.3M | $67.5M | |
| Profit on GDV | 35% | 15% | 50% | |
| Implied valuation at raise | 61,360 sqft | 61,360 sqft | 61,360 sqft | |
| Strength of the Management Team | 30% | $1,150/sqft | $850/sqft | $1,000/sqft |
| Size of the Opportunity | 20% | $1,200/sqft | $875/sqft | $1,025/sqft |
| Product / Technology | 20% | $1,250/sqft | $900/sqft | $1,050/sqft |
| Competitive Environment | 15% | $1,275/sqft | $925/sqft | $1,075/sqft |
| Marketing, Sales, Channels, Partnerships | 5% | $1,300/sqft | $950/sqft | $1,100/sqft |
| Need for Additional Investment | 5% | $1,325/sqft | $975/sqft | $1,125/sqft |
| Other | 5% | $1,350/sqft | $1,000/sqft | $1,150/sqft |
| Total | 100% | $1,300/sqft | $950/sqft | $1,100/sqft |
| Weighting | 35% | 15% | 50% | |
| Weighted Value | $28.0M | $8.7M | $33.8M | |
| Value on Completion | $70.5M | |||
Comparable Schemes
The Comparable Schemes method values the project by benchmarking it against competing developments in the same submarket. It is widely used by investors to price for-sale schemes against real evidence of what buyers are paying and how fast rivals are selling their com
We start with pricing and absorption evidence drawn from competing RiNo schemes at a similar price point. Each comparable carries an adjustment for location, specification, and scale relative to Marlowe, and a weighting that reflect
A blend of the adjusted comparables sets the supportable price per square foot, which drives the completed value: Value equals net saleable area times blended price per square foot. The method focuses on what the market is paying today rather than a forecast.
Strengths
Aligns pricing with what buyers are paying now. Useful where recent comparable sales are available. Transparent, easy-to-follow calculation framework.
Limitations
Highly sensitive to exit assumptions. Overlooks interim execution risk and capital needs before exit. Does not capture free cash flow generated along the way.
method steps
From competing schemes to a completed value in six steps.
Estimate exit value
From compsApply risk adjustment
Per compWeight by representativeness
By stage and fitSum to probability-weighted exit
AnchorApply required return multiple
IRR or multipleDerive value on completion
OutputComparable Schemes
Three comparable stage exits in Comparable are adjusted for the probability of Marlowe Yard reaching that scale, weighted by representativeness, then converted to today’s gross using the required return multiple.
| Comparable | Exit Value | Adjustment | Rationale | Weighting | Consideration |
The Rowan (RiNo) Sell-out · 2022
| $58.3M | $950/sqft | The Rowan sold out in 2022 at about $950 per square foot, the value end of recent RiNo product. It is the most conservative anchor here, discounted for its lower finish level, and carries a 15% weight. | 15.00% | $8.7M |
Nine Mile (RiNo) Sell-out · 2023
| $67.5M | $1,100/sqft | Nine Mile sold out in 2023 at about $1,100 per square foot. It is the closest match to Marlowe on scale, location and finish, and carries a 25% weight as a direct read on achievable pricing. | 25.00% | $16.9M |
Larimer & 30th (RiNo) Sell-out · 2024
| $79.8M | $1,300/sqft | Larimer & 30th achieved about $1,300 per square foot on completion in 2024, the top of the Denver market. It sets the premium ceiling and carries the 60% weight, given Marlowe's comparable specification and larger homes. | 60.00% | $47.9M |
| Probability-weighted exit value | $1,170/sqft | ||||
| Return Factor | $1,176/sqft |
| Value on Completion (GDV) | $73.5M |
| Less Total Development Cost | $72.2M |
| Development Profit | +0.5% |
Discounted Cash Flows Method
The Development Cashflow method estimates value as the present value of the scheme's monthly cashflow to completion. It is most useful once the cost plan, programme, and sales phasing are firm enough to model month by month.
We forecast free cash flows over five years and add a terminal value computed via the Perpetuity Growth Method or a comparable P/E multiple. Each cash flow is discounted at a rate that reflects risk and stage.
The sum of the discounted monthly cashflows gives the net present value of the scheme, after loan drawdowns, sales receipts, and equity are accounted for.
Strengths
Intrinsic, rooted in expected financial performance. Suited to established businesses with historical financials and forward visibility.
Limitations
Highly sensitive to assumptions. Less reliable where sales pace and pricing are still uncertain or the programme has yet to be fixed.
method steps
From forecast cash flows to equity value in six steps.
Forecast free cash flows
5-year horizonApply discount rate
Cost of capitalDetermine terminal value
PGM or P/EDiscount each year to today
Year by yearSum present values
Enterprise valueAdjust for net debt and cash
Equity valueDiscounted Cash Flows Method
Projected free cash flows and a terminal assumption are discounted at the cost of capital to derive enterprise value. Discounted years one through five plus the discounted terminal sum to today’s value.
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
| Free cash flow | $72.2M | ($32.0M) | ($1.6M) | ($3.52M) | ($1.44M) |
| Earnings, Year 5 | ($2.78M) | ||||
| P/E ratio | ($1.0M) | ||||
| Terminal value | ($42.34M) | ||||
| Discount rate | ($18.82M) | ||||
| Present value of cash flow | $11.0M | $229,000 | $143/sqft | 15.2% | 20.6% |
| Present value of terminal value | $11.0M | ||||
| Enterprise value | $11.0M | ||||
Scenario Analysis
Scenario Analysis is a probability-weighted approach built on the development appraisal. It tests the scheme across three futures: an upside case, a base case, and a downside case.
Each case flexes sales values and absorption by a defined amount. The appraisal runs on each case, producing three profit figures. Probabilities are assigned across the three cases and must sum to 100%. The output is the probability-weighted profit.
Strengths
Captures a range of outcomes with probabilistic weighting. Useful for later-stage companies where multiple scenarios can be modelled with credible inputs.
Limitations
Sensitive to both the case assumptions and the probability weighting. Requires a firm cost plan and sales phasing. Best used once the programme is fixed.
method steps
Five steps from the base appraisal to a probability-weighted profit.
Build base case
Base appraisalDefine best case
FCF upliftDefine worst case
FCF haircutAssign probabilities
Sum to 100%Compute weighted average
Probability-weighted profitScenario Analysis
Upside, base, and downside cases are given probabilities; their weighted average is the profit.
| Scenario | Change in Free Cash | Probability | Value | Weighted Value |
| Best case | +5% | 25% | $75.8M | $23.4M |
| Base case | 50% | $72.2M | $18.8M | |
| Worst case | -5% | 25% | $68.6M | $13.4M |
| Value | $72.2M |
Scenario Analysis Upside Case
Projected monthly sales and costs are discounted to today to derive the scheme's present value and profit.
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
| Free Cash Flow | $75.8M | ($31.2M) | ($1.56M) | ($3.43M) | ($1.52M) |
| Earnings Year 5 | ($2.70M) | ||||
| PE ratio | ($1.0M) | ||||
| Terminal Value | ($11.0M) | ||||
| Discount Value | $52.4M | ||||
| Present Value of Cash Flow | $23.4M | 44.6% | 30.8% | +5% | -2.5% |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | $1,235/sqft | ||||
| Value | $23.4M |
Scenario Analysis Downside Case
Projected monthly sales and costs are discounted to today to derive the scheme's present value and profit.
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
| Free Cash Flow | $68.6M | ($33.6M) | ($1.68M) | ($3.70M) | ($1.37M) |
| Earnings Year 5 | ($2.85M) | ||||
| PE ratio | ($1.0M) | ||||
| Terminal Value | ($11.0M) | ||||
| Discount Value | $55.2M | ||||
| Present Value of Cash Flow | $13.4M | 24.2% | 19.5% | -5% | +5% |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | $1,117/sqft | ||||
| Value | $13.4M |
Concluded value

Disclaimer
This document has been prepared for the purposes stated herein and should not be relied upon for any other purpose. This document provides a summary of the work undertaken by Top Tier Advisory and unless required by law, this document should not be provided to any third party without our prior written consent. In no event, regardless of whether consent has been provided, shall we assume any responsibility to any third party to which this document is disclosed or otherwise made available.
This document was prepared exclusively for internal use as at the date hereof and does not carry any right of publication or disclosure, in whole or in part, to any other party. This document is for discussion purposes only and is incomplete without reference to, and should be viewed solely in conjunction with, the oral briefing provided by the representatives of Top Tier Advisory.
The information provided in this document is based solely upon financial and non-financial information provided.
Whilst our work has involved a benchmark analysis, our engagement does not include either an audit or a review in accordance with International Standards on Auditing of the information used in the preparation of this valuation report. Accordingly, we assume no responsibility and make no representations with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any information used in the preparation of this report.
Budgets and forecasts relate to future events and are based on assumptions that may not remain valid for the whole or part of the relevant period. Consequently this information cannot be relied upon to the same
extent as that derived from audited accounts for completed accounting periods. We express no opinion as to how closely the actual results will correspond to those forecasts used in this presentation.
Market conditions and volatility of such markets make valuation exercises, of both company cash flows and financial instruments, extremely challenging and have created a significant potential range of assumptions
on risk-free rate, equity market risk premium and debt spreads. In addition, theoretical assumptions may not reflect reality. Subjectivity over key inputs to the cost of capital and capital and operating expenditure
assumptions, as well as underlying concerns about the impact of the economic upturns and/or downturn on the financial forecasts increases the complexity of the valuation analysis.
The benchmarking of companies, businesses and related cash flows is not a precise science and the conclusions arrived at in many cases will, of necessity, be subjective and dependent on the exercise of individual
Judgement as well as publicly available information to a certain extent. There is therefore no indisputable single value and we normally express the value as falling within a range at a point in time. Whilst we consider our benchmarks to be both reasonable and defensible based on the information available to us, others may place a different value on the benchmarks.