market_report

6.1 Market

Slide 1 - Cover (LAVisions layout)layout: title_hero · 16:9
Marlowe Yard
Market & Demand
Why RiNo, and why now.
MK 01 / 10
Market opportunity
A $4.2B central-Denver for-sale market with a scarce boutique-premium slice
TAMSAMSOM
$4.2BTotal submarket demand
Annual for-sale home purchases across central Denver, rising with sustained in-migration
RiNo, LoDo, LoHi, Five Points and the central Denver core.
$670MAddressable buyer pool
The new boutique-premium condo slice, priced above $800,000
For-sale product, growing faster than the rental-led supply around it.
$72.2MMarlowe's capture
Marlowe Yard sell-out: 48 homes at a blended $1,176 per square foot
Eight one-beds, twenty-six two-beds, ten three-beds and four penthouses, sold across the programme.
MK 02 / 10
Location and timing
RiNo is where Denver's demand is heading
01
In-migration keeps coming
Denver keeps drawing high earners for the jobs, the outdoors and the lifestyle. That demand lands hardest in walkable, central submarkets.
02
For-sale supply is short
New construction here is overwhelmingly rental. A buyer who wants to own a new home in RiNo has almost nothing to choose from.
03
The district arrived
RiNo went from warehouses to Denver's fastest-gentrifying submarket, with breweries, galleries, offices and light rail. Pricing follows that shift.
MK 03 / 10
The appraisal
Margin built on a $72.2M sell-out against $53.3M of cost
Home sales
Profit per programme
$72.2M of sales against $53.3M of total development cost. Profit of $18.8M, 35.3% on cost and 26.1% on gross development value, across a 32-month programme.
Development margin
Development margin
Blended pricing of $1,176 per square foot across 48 homes, from $820,000 one-beds to $2.75M penthouses.
MK 04 / 10
Total submarket demand
Bottom-up by home type Gross development value = homes x price, summed across the four home types Type-by-type across the 48 homes unit a = homes of this type; unit b = one sale per home; unit c = average price per home
$72.2M
Two-bed homes Homes 26 Sales per home 1 Average price $1,350,000 $35.1M
Three-bed and penthouse Homes 14 Sales per home 1 Average price $2,178,000 $30.5M
One-bed homes Homes 8 Sales per home 1 Average price $820,000 $6.6M
Blended $1,176 per square foot across 61,360 net saleable square feet Bottom-up, development appraisal 2026
MK 05 / 10
Addressable buyer pool $670M

Filters applied to demand:

Price band: new homes above $800,000 only - 35% concentrates on the $820,000 to $2.75M boutique-premium band and excludes the mass and rental tail
Geography: RiNo and the adjacent central Denver core - 60% excludes for-sale demand outside the walkable, transit-served submarkets around RiNo
Product: buyers who want to own rather than rent - 80% excludes the share of movers who will only rent in this submarket
Supply: new-build homes, not existing resale stock - 95% excludes the resale market and counts only new for-sale product like Marlowe
$4.2B x 35% x 60% x 80% x 95% = $670M addressable buyer pool
TAM
× 90%
× 89%
× 99%
× 99%
SAM
MK 06 / 10
Marlowe's capture Our target in 5 years $72.2M
Year Metro buyers Submarket buyers Marlowe homes Total
Y1 y1 unit a count y1 unit b rate y1 unit c value y1 total
Y2 y2 unit a count y2 unit b rate y2 unit c value y2 total
Y3 y3 unit a count y3 unit b rate y3 unit c value y3 total
Y4 y4 unit a count y4 unit b rate y4 unit c value y4 total
Y5 y5 unit a count y5 unit b rate y5 unit c value y5 total
Active users01M2M3M4M150K600K1.4M2.6M3.8MYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
MK 07 / 10
Demand and supply signalsSustained in-migration against a tight for-sale supply
1×2×3×1.0×3.3×27% CAGR202520262027202820292030U.S. Census Bureau and regional broker data, 2026
Denver metro in-migration continues to lead large US metros | U.S. Census Bureau
New for-sale condo supply in central Denver stays scarce | regional MLS data
RiNo served by the 38th and Blake light-rail station | RTD Denver
New RiNo and LoHi condos price at $900 to $1,300 per square foot | broker comparables
MK 08 / 10
Risk and mitigation Four real risks, and each one has a mitigation
Construction cost inflation Hard costs run $32M, and a swing in materials or labor moves the profit line A 5% contingency and a fixed-price build contract hold the exposure
Sales absorption risk Sell-out depends on closing all 48 homes across the programme Pre-sales from month six and a target of 55% pre-sold by completion de-risk the back end
Interest rate and financing risk The senior loan is priced at 9.5%, and higher rates lift finance cost and soften buyer demand 60% loan-to-cost keeps the debt moderate, with equity returned as homes close
Entitlement and programme risk A 32-month programme carries entitlement, permitting and construction timing risk Entitlement is in hand and enabling works start at closing, with float built into the schedule
MK 09 / 10
Key Takeaway A scarce, boutique-premium submarket, well located and deliverable
Total submarket demand $4.2B
Addressable buyer pool $670M
Marlowe's capture $72.2M
Compound Annual Growth Rate 35.3%
MK 10 / 10